Virginina: Key to Obama's Victory
By Ted Regencia
The storied Commonwealth of Virginia was the epicenter of the most intense fights between Abraham Lincoln's Union Army and the audacious Confederates during the Civil War of 1861 to 1865. Stonewall Jackson made his name here, and General Robert E. Lee saw his army surrender to General Ulysses S. Grant in Appomatox. From Shenandoah Valley to the trenches of Chesapeake and the Potomac, history was written in blood.
On the 4th day of November 2008, the Old Dominion, seat of the Confederacy, hotbed of late 1960s school busing and integration, and now ground zero of the 2008 battle for the White House, could once again play a defining moment in history, by electing the first African American president.
Cognizant of its historical significance, and mindful of the electoral college equation, Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama will put an exclamation point to his 21-month old quest for the Oval Office, by closing out his campaign in Virginia. On the night of November 3, he will hold a rally in Prince William County, and is expected to attract as many as 100,000 people. Summoning the troops in the heavily-Democratic Northern Virginia, the Illinois senator hopes to drive up voter turnout to record numbers, and then deliver the state to the Democratic column for the first time in 44 years.
It's a very, very tall order. Virginia last voted Democratic in 1964, when Lyndon B. Johnson, a true-blue Southerner, scored a landslide against Senator Barry Goldwater. Incidentally, Goldwater hails from Arizona, and until his retirement in 1987, held the Senate seat of the current Republican presidential candidate, Senator John McCain. Since then, Virginia has been reliably Republican, due in part to the Grand Old Party's Southern Strategy, as perfected by President Richard Nixon in 1968 and 1972. Neither President Jimmy Carter, nor Vice President Al Gore, both Southerners, could carry the state. Not even the Bubba candidate, Bill Clinton could do it, in the rout of Bob Dole in 1996.
In 2000 and 2004, President George W. Bush carried Virginia with a margin of eight percentage points against Gore and Massachusetts Senator John Kerry respectively. That cemented the conventional wisdom that Virginia will remain a bulwark of the Republican Party in the elections to come.
To be sure, Virginia will remain a conservative to moderate state, making it a natural fit for Republicans. But shifting winds during this current electoral season have created a perfect storm for change. Should that happen, ABC News analyst and former Bush 43 pollster Matthew Dowd predicted Obama to win.
Economy
Top concern is the economy. Virginians have a reputation as fiscal conservatives, and the current financial meltdown, said to be the worst since the Depression of the 1930s does not sit well with them.
In the year 2001, Bush inherited a budget surplus of $128 billion. In 2009, the deficit is projected at $482 billion, according to a CNN report. That's before the crash of the stock market, and the passage of the $750 billion Wall Street bailout plan that has enraged voters across the spectrum.
Home foreclosures are on the rise. In Richmond, once the capital of the Confederacy, a local newspaper reported that home foreclosures have tripled in the third quarter of 2008, from the year-earlier period. In Prince George, even as home sales surged, the median sale price of single-family houses plunged 41 percent in the past year, according to an October 17 article in the Washington Post.
It doesn't help that people are losing jobs, albeit not as bad as other states. According to Forbes magazine, Virginia's unemployment rate for September 2008 was 4.2 percent, up 1.2 percent from a year ago, and the highest since 1996. Inflation, however, remains low mitigating a harsher effect on the overall economic health of the state.
According to analysts and historians, the incumbent party always loses the White House during an election period "a definable economic downturn." The elder President Bush learned that the hard way in 1992. According to Cybercast News Service, only once since 1876 has the party in the White House managed to retain the presidency during such period. That year, Republican Rutherford B. Hayes succeeded President Ulysses S. Grant in a race against Democrat Samuel Jones Tilden. But that was only because Hayes, who was tied with Tilden in the electoral college, was backed by a Republican Congress, which broke the tie in favor of their partymate.
That precedent is bad news for McCain.
War in Iraq
Yet, the former Vietnam POW and war hero remains a formidable figure particularly within Virginia's large military population. His strong support for the war in Iraq still reverberates among the war hawks. His independent streak also enamored him to the troops. But among younger military families, who are bearing the brunt of a prolonged Iraqi occupation, Obama is reported to be making some in-roads. It remains to be seen how many votes can Obama chip away from that block.
The economic turmoil have also "marginalized" McCain's clear edge on national security and the war, said veteran conservative columnist George Will, who himself excoriated the Arizona senator for picking up Sarah Palin as vice president, and for being erratic at the height of the stock market plunge.
But one group expected to be loyal to McCain are conservative evangelicals as well as pro-life and pro-Second Amendment voters in the Appalachian region and other rural areas. They include a handful of Hillary Clinton supporters, who will never vote for an African American.
Flushed with overwhelming cash and an outpouring enthusiasm, Obama is unfazed by that reality, choosing instead to go on a full-court press offensive.
All politics is local
Since he launched the general election campaign in Bristow, at the heart of Prince William Country, he has already visited Virginia at least a dozen times, not typical for a Democrat. On Tuesday, October 28 for instance, Obama ventured into George W. Bush territory of Harrisonburg, which voted 57 percent for the current White House resident. The idea is to minimize losses there, while racking up huge margins in the reliable Democratic counties to maintain a lead.
Harrisonburg's Daily New Register wrote: "Should Mr. Obama meet with more success in the Valley than expected, he will have proven that Virginia is a truly 'purple' state and that the Commonwealth’s Republican era, vis-à-vis federal elections at least, may well be ending."
It's also a clear manifestation that the former community organizer understands the credo, "All politics is local."
Demographics
More than that, Obama may be helped by the changing demographics. To push him over to the finish line, Obama will have to rely heavily on counties such as Fairfax and Prince George. Here, red is turning purple, with a population explosion of young families, college-educated professionals, and D.C.-type voters.
Indications of a movement in the demographics first surfaced in 2002, when Democrat Mark Warner was elected governor. Then in 2006, Jim Webb knocked down a popular Republican incumbent George Allen. On the same year Lt. Governor Tim Kaine succeeded the very popular Warner as governor. Now, Warner is running for senator against another former governor, James Gilmore. Mark Warner is expected to win that race to replace retiring Senator John Warner (not related), and his presence in the ballot could also help Obama.
Groundgame
But even that may not be enough for Obama, a Virgnia outsider whose politics is left of Kaine and Warner, even Webb.
Enter the ground game.
Taking advantage of the prolonged primary process, Obama built an army of volunteers and expanded his effort to register new voters. That greatly benefited him. He resoundingly defeated Hillary there.
After clinching enough delegates for the nomination, he immediately transitioned to the general election. By the time September came, Obama has already opened 41 offices across the state: An overwhelming effort to secure the state's 13 electoral votes.
The strategy paid off handsomely in voter registration.
The Times-Dispatch reported that for the first time, more than 5 million Virginians are registered to vote, with a total net gain of 436,000.
The same report said that nearly 40 percent of the newly registered voters are under 25, and overall, 53 percent of the newly registered voters are female. Both constituencies lean heavily for Obama. Many of them are also from the urban areas and college towns like Williamsburg, home of the College of William and Mary.
Meanwhile, in predominantly African American areas of Petersburg and Richmond, registration also increased dramatically.
Race factor
This dramatic increase in young voters and African Americans could blunt any residual bias against a Black candidate.
Indeed race remains an influential factor in Virginia. Just ask the first African-American Governor L. Douglas Wilder. In the 1989 race for governor, Wilder was leading by double-digit points. Exit polls also showed the same trend. But when the votes were cast, he only won by 6,000 margin, or less than one percentage point.
Obama himself learned it the hard way in New Hampshire, when Hillary came from behind to defeat him. This despite media predictions and polling data showing an Obama win.
Twenty years after Wilder's successful run, only the final result on the night of November 4th, can validate or invalidate that Wilder effect on Obama's candidacy.
In one interview, Larry Sabato, a University of Virginia political scientist, predicted a 2 percent dip in white support for a black candidate on Election Day - not enough, he said, to tilt victory to McCain nationally or in Virginia.
As of November 2, the newspaper Virginia-Pilot reported that a survey among 625 likely voters showed a 47-44 advantage for Obama, with 9 percent undecided and a plus or minus 4 percentage points margin of error. That's a red flag for Obama who still struggles mightily to cross the 50% mark in some polling.
Obama will win by a whisker
Since Wilder's nail-biter victory, Virginia has become more diverse. When Wilder ran, 77 percent of Virginia residents were white. Today, that number is 73 percent. In 1989, voters in Northern Virginia accounted for 22 percent of the electorate. Today, Northern Virginia voters make up about 30 percent, and they have been increasingly siding with Democrats, the Washington Post reporter.
"It's a much better state for Obama," Robert Lang, a demographer at the Metropolitan Institute at Virginia Tech, was quoted as saying in the same article. "Had Wilder been running the same race, he would have won by a much bigger margin."
This year is no ordinary year. While Barack Obama may have put to good use his charisma to attract new voters, he will most certainly drive up votes for his opponent as well, by virtue of his color. Still, he has shown steadiness and discipline beyond his years, thus making voters comfortable of him. In the final analysis, when all votes are counted, Virginia will once again claim its title as "Mother of Presidents" by electing him over John McCain.
By Ted Regencia
The storied Commonwealth of Virginia was the epicenter of the most intense fights between Abraham Lincoln's Union Army and the audacious Confederates during the Civil War of 1861 to 1865. Stonewall Jackson made his name here, and General Robert E. Lee saw his army surrender to General Ulysses S. Grant in Appomatox. From Shenandoah Valley to the trenches of Chesapeake and the Potomac, history was written in blood.
On the 4th day of November 2008, the Old Dominion, seat of the Confederacy, hotbed of late 1960s school busing and integration, and now ground zero of the 2008 battle for the White House, could once again play a defining moment in history, by electing the first African American president.
Cognizant of its historical significance, and mindful of the electoral college equation, Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama will put an exclamation point to his 21-month old quest for the Oval Office, by closing out his campaign in Virginia. On the night of November 3, he will hold a rally in Prince William County, and is expected to attract as many as 100,000 people. Summoning the troops in the heavily-Democratic Northern Virginia, the Illinois senator hopes to drive up voter turnout to record numbers, and then deliver the state to the Democratic column for the first time in 44 years.
It's a very, very tall order. Virginia last voted Democratic in 1964, when Lyndon B. Johnson, a true-blue Southerner, scored a landslide against Senator Barry Goldwater. Incidentally, Goldwater hails from Arizona, and until his retirement in 1987, held the Senate seat of the current Republican presidential candidate, Senator John McCain. Since then, Virginia has been reliably Republican, due in part to the Grand Old Party's Southern Strategy, as perfected by President Richard Nixon in 1968 and 1972. Neither President Jimmy Carter, nor Vice President Al Gore, both Southerners, could carry the state. Not even the Bubba candidate, Bill Clinton could do it, in the rout of Bob Dole in 1996.
In 2000 and 2004, President George W. Bush carried Virginia with a margin of eight percentage points against Gore and Massachusetts Senator John Kerry respectively. That cemented the conventional wisdom that Virginia will remain a bulwark of the Republican Party in the elections to come.
To be sure, Virginia will remain a conservative to moderate state, making it a natural fit for Republicans. But shifting winds during this current electoral season have created a perfect storm for change. Should that happen, ABC News analyst and former Bush 43 pollster Matthew Dowd predicted Obama to win.
Economy
Top concern is the economy. Virginians have a reputation as fiscal conservatives, and the current financial meltdown, said to be the worst since the Depression of the 1930s does not sit well with them.
In the year 2001, Bush inherited a budget surplus of $128 billion. In 2009, the deficit is projected at $482 billion, according to a CNN report. That's before the crash of the stock market, and the passage of the $750 billion Wall Street bailout plan that has enraged voters across the spectrum.
Home foreclosures are on the rise. In Richmond, once the capital of the Confederacy, a local newspaper reported that home foreclosures have tripled in the third quarter of 2008, from the year-earlier period. In Prince George, even as home sales surged, the median sale price of single-family houses plunged 41 percent in the past year, according to an October 17 article in the Washington Post.
It doesn't help that people are losing jobs, albeit not as bad as other states. According to Forbes magazine, Virginia's unemployment rate for September 2008 was 4.2 percent, up 1.2 percent from a year ago, and the highest since 1996. Inflation, however, remains low mitigating a harsher effect on the overall economic health of the state.
According to analysts and historians, the incumbent party always loses the White House during an election period "a definable economic downturn." The elder President Bush learned that the hard way in 1992. According to Cybercast News Service, only once since 1876 has the party in the White House managed to retain the presidency during such period. That year, Republican Rutherford B. Hayes succeeded President Ulysses S. Grant in a race against Democrat Samuel Jones Tilden. But that was only because Hayes, who was tied with Tilden in the electoral college, was backed by a Republican Congress, which broke the tie in favor of their partymate.
That precedent is bad news for McCain.
War in Iraq
Yet, the former Vietnam POW and war hero remains a formidable figure particularly within Virginia's large military population. His strong support for the war in Iraq still reverberates among the war hawks. His independent streak also enamored him to the troops. But among younger military families, who are bearing the brunt of a prolonged Iraqi occupation, Obama is reported to be making some in-roads. It remains to be seen how many votes can Obama chip away from that block.
The economic turmoil have also "marginalized" McCain's clear edge on national security and the war, said veteran conservative columnist George Will, who himself excoriated the Arizona senator for picking up Sarah Palin as vice president, and for being erratic at the height of the stock market plunge.
But one group expected to be loyal to McCain are conservative evangelicals as well as pro-life and pro-Second Amendment voters in the Appalachian region and other rural areas. They include a handful of Hillary Clinton supporters, who will never vote for an African American.
Flushed with overwhelming cash and an outpouring enthusiasm, Obama is unfazed by that reality, choosing instead to go on a full-court press offensive.
All politics is local
Since he launched the general election campaign in Bristow, at the heart of Prince William Country, he has already visited Virginia at least a dozen times, not typical for a Democrat. On Tuesday, October 28 for instance, Obama ventured into George W. Bush territory of Harrisonburg, which voted 57 percent for the current White House resident. The idea is to minimize losses there, while racking up huge margins in the reliable Democratic counties to maintain a lead.
Harrisonburg's Daily New Register wrote: "Should Mr. Obama meet with more success in the Valley than expected, he will have proven that Virginia is a truly 'purple' state and that the Commonwealth’s Republican era, vis-à-vis federal elections at least, may well be ending."
It's also a clear manifestation that the former community organizer understands the credo, "All politics is local."
Demographics
More than that, Obama may be helped by the changing demographics. To push him over to the finish line, Obama will have to rely heavily on counties such as Fairfax and Prince George. Here, red is turning purple, with a population explosion of young families, college-educated professionals, and D.C.-type voters.
Indications of a movement in the demographics first surfaced in 2002, when Democrat Mark Warner was elected governor. Then in 2006, Jim Webb knocked down a popular Republican incumbent George Allen. On the same year Lt. Governor Tim Kaine succeeded the very popular Warner as governor. Now, Warner is running for senator against another former governor, James Gilmore. Mark Warner is expected to win that race to replace retiring Senator John Warner (not related), and his presence in the ballot could also help Obama.
Groundgame
But even that may not be enough for Obama, a Virgnia outsider whose politics is left of Kaine and Warner, even Webb.
Enter the ground game.
Taking advantage of the prolonged primary process, Obama built an army of volunteers and expanded his effort to register new voters. That greatly benefited him. He resoundingly defeated Hillary there.
After clinching enough delegates for the nomination, he immediately transitioned to the general election. By the time September came, Obama has already opened 41 offices across the state: An overwhelming effort to secure the state's 13 electoral votes.
The strategy paid off handsomely in voter registration.
The Times-Dispatch reported that for the first time, more than 5 million Virginians are registered to vote, with a total net gain of 436,000.
The same report said that nearly 40 percent of the newly registered voters are under 25, and overall, 53 percent of the newly registered voters are female. Both constituencies lean heavily for Obama. Many of them are also from the urban areas and college towns like Williamsburg, home of the College of William and Mary.
Meanwhile, in predominantly African American areas of Petersburg and Richmond, registration also increased dramatically.
Race factor
This dramatic increase in young voters and African Americans could blunt any residual bias against a Black candidate.
Indeed race remains an influential factor in Virginia. Just ask the first African-American Governor L. Douglas Wilder. In the 1989 race for governor, Wilder was leading by double-digit points. Exit polls also showed the same trend. But when the votes were cast, he only won by 6,000 margin, or less than one percentage point.
Obama himself learned it the hard way in New Hampshire, when Hillary came from behind to defeat him. This despite media predictions and polling data showing an Obama win.
Twenty years after Wilder's successful run, only the final result on the night of November 4th, can validate or invalidate that Wilder effect on Obama's candidacy.
In one interview, Larry Sabato, a University of Virginia political scientist, predicted a 2 percent dip in white support for a black candidate on Election Day - not enough, he said, to tilt victory to McCain nationally or in Virginia.
As of November 2, the newspaper Virginia-Pilot reported that a survey among 625 likely voters showed a 47-44 advantage for Obama, with 9 percent undecided and a plus or minus 4 percentage points margin of error. That's a red flag for Obama who still struggles mightily to cross the 50% mark in some polling.
Obama will win by a whisker
Since Wilder's nail-biter victory, Virginia has become more diverse. When Wilder ran, 77 percent of Virginia residents were white. Today, that number is 73 percent. In 1989, voters in Northern Virginia accounted for 22 percent of the electorate. Today, Northern Virginia voters make up about 30 percent, and they have been increasingly siding with Democrats, the Washington Post reporter.
"It's a much better state for Obama," Robert Lang, a demographer at the Metropolitan Institute at Virginia Tech, was quoted as saying in the same article. "Had Wilder been running the same race, he would have won by a much bigger margin."
This year is no ordinary year. While Barack Obama may have put to good use his charisma to attract new voters, he will most certainly drive up votes for his opponent as well, by virtue of his color. Still, he has shown steadiness and discipline beyond his years, thus making voters comfortable of him. In the final analysis, when all votes are counted, Virginia will once again claim its title as "Mother of Presidents" by electing him over John McCain.
